I thank my research colleagues, who co-authored our publications listed in the references, for their contributions to our projects. To others, especially W. Balee, C. Clement, N. Smith, E. Neves, R. Meade, Lee Newsom, M. Parssinen, J. Oliver, P. Siegel, N. Pitman, and J. Walker, I owe thanks for their discussions, though they are not responsible for my conclusions. Thanks also to K.-Y. Tung and J. Delmar for their help. Thanks especially to

Jon Erlandson and Todd Braje for the invitation NLG919 nmr to write this paper and for their great editorial assistance, to Editor Anne Chin for her encouragement, and to the reviewers for their useful comments. “
“Global warming and environmental change are unintended consequences of fossil-fuel burning and large-scale landuse change that have increased the concentration of “greenhouse” gases in the earth’s atmosphere (CO2 by 30%; CH4 by over 100%; Crutzen, 2002). These atmospheric changes follow an upward trend in anthropogenically induced CO2 and CH4 evident in polar ice starting in the late 18th century that is coincident

with increased reliance on fossil fuels and rapidly expanding global populations. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects high confidence of global warming in the range of 1.5–4.5 °C based on a doubling of atmospheric CO2 (IPCC, 2013, Working Group I) likely within the next century. There are many likely negative impacts, such as sea-level rise. Increases in average global temperatures are also linked to extremes in the earth’s hydrological cycle (e.g.,

drought and floods) that undermine food security and have major http://www.selleckchem.com/products/pci-32765.html implications for human health, welfare, and societal infrastructure (Patz et al., 2005 and IPCC, 2007, Working Group II), though we still do not know how global warming would affect some of the big climate influences like hurricanes and ENSO. The middle and upper ends of the range (the likely 4.5 °C and very unlikely levels of 6 °C or above, IPCC, 2013) potentially put our social, CYTH4 economic, and political systems at risk because they are inter-connected and certainly vulnerable to economic and environmental shocks. The “Anthropocene” – originally defined as the last three centuries of human domination of earth’s ecosystems (Crutzen, 2002) – brings focus to the acute nature of these problems, the era’s rareness in the geological record, and the need for collective political action to build a more environmentally stable future. Lessons from our past embedded in the archeological and historical records indicate that the unintended consequences of human action have influenced environmental productivity and destabilized sociopolitical systems before. This does not reduce the dire significance of the anthropogenic changes to the earth’s atmosphere today or the importance of establishing policies that mitigate these effects going into the future.