Waves approach Pakri mostly from the west. The simulated propagation distributions for all waves and for moderate and high waves almost coincide. Thus, one of the most interesting properties

of wind fields in the Gulf of Finland (that the direction of the strongest winds does not match the direction of the most frequent winds (Soomere & Keevallik 2003)) is not represented either in wave observations or in simulations. The directional distributions of the wave approach show a certain interannual and decadal this website variability for Vilsandi and Pakri but reveal no substantial long-term changes of the predominant direction. A much clearer pattern of the changes in wave direction was found for Narva-Jõesuu during the half-century of observations (Räämet et al. 2010). Waves mostly approached from the west or north-west until about 1965 (Figure 7). The most frequent approach direction moved almost to the north in the 1970s. Later, it turned considerably, from the north-west to the south-west during the 1980s, and has been mostly

from the south since about 2000. The most frequently observed propagation direction, therefore, has changed by more than 90°. The second most frequent wave direction (SE) has turned in a similar manner. Interestingly, none of these changes are reflected in the simulated wave propagation directions, which are concentrated around W-NW (Räämet Metformin et al. 2010). Extreme waves from scatter diagrams. The combinations of wave properties in the roughest storms can be estimated from the empirical selleck two-dimensional distributions of the joint probability of the occurrence of wave conditions with different heights and periods (called scatter diagrams in some sources, Kahma et al. 2003). The empirical distributions of the frequency of occurrence of different wave heights and periods can be obtained from scatter diagrams by integration in the relevant direction. For the Baltic Sea conditions such diagrams for both observed and measured data are dominated by an elongated region corresponding

to the most frequently occurring wave conditions. Its location largely matches the curve corresponding to fully developed seas (Soomere 2008). The instrumental data from Almagrundet and Bogskär and from a directional waverider in the northern Baltic Proper (Kahma et al. 2003, Soomere 2008) show that the roughest seas in the Baltic Sea are generally steeper than the fully developed waves. The highest waves (HS ≥ 7 m) correspond to mean periods of 8–9 s at Almagrundet and to peak periods of 9–11 s at Bogskär and in the northern Baltic Proper ( Soomere 2008). The scatter diagrams for observed waves are very similar to those constructed using the WAM model at all observation sites for low and moderate wave conditions, up to wave heights of 3 m (Räämet et al. 2010).